The transition to electric vehicles could lead to a shortage of lithium, a metal used in batteries, unless the United States and other countries make changes to their transportation systems. According to research from the University of California, Davis, and the Climate and Community Project, converting the existing U.S. car fleet to electric vehicles would require three times more lithium by 2050 than the world currently produces.
This could lead to environmental damage and international tension over supplies of the metal, which is primarily mined outside the United States. To reduce the demand for lithium, the report suggests broader changes in the transportation system, such as increased use of mass transit, denser urban development, and electric bikes and scooters. Additionally, intensive recycling of lithium batteries could help reduce the demand for the metal.
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“Any of those changes would be a net positive, all of them would be transformative,” said Thea Riofrancos, a political scientist at Providence College who worked on the report.
The world currently produces a little more than 100,000 tons of lithium a year. However, according to research from the University of California, Davis, and the Climate and Community Project, the United States alone could require up to 483,000 tons of lithium a year by 2050 if the transportation system remains unchanged and consumers buy vehicles with batteries roughly the same size as those used in today’s electric sedans.
On the other hand, U.S. lithium demand could drop by more than 90 percent from the worst-case scenario by 2050 if there is greater use of mass transit, micromobility, and a shift toward denser communities and options such as walking and biking, as well as smaller car batteries and virtually all batteries being recycled at the end of their life.
Battery companies are looking for ways to squeeze more power out of smaller batteries, and mining operators around the world are trying to boost production of lithium, which could affect the outcome.
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Lithium is critical to making EV batteries but is only produced at one mine in the United States — Silver Peak in Nevada run by Albemarle Corp. (Greenwire, Oct. 14, 2022).
Australia, Chile, China and Argentina account for about 95 percent of the world’s production, the report said.
Globally, demand for lithium is expected to skyrocket by as much as six times the current level, requiring 50 new mines, the International Energy Agency concluded in a report last year.
The Biden administration has made moves recently to shore up the nation’s access to minerals such as lithium, both at home and abroad.
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Earlier this month, the Energy Department offered a $700 million conditional loan guarantee for a facility that would process lithium from a mine in southwest Nevada (Greenwire, Jan. 13).
But such projects can be precarious to approve and permit. The Nevada plant, which is still undergoing an environmental review, is facing opposition for its proximity to the only known habitat for the Tiehm’s buckwheat, a yellow-tinged wildflower the Fish and Wildlife Service recently listed as endangered (Greenwire, Dec. 14, 2022).
The administration also is looking overseas to shore up supply chains for battery minerals. The United States and allies who comprise the so-called Mineral Security Partnership are vetting 16 projects — from mining to processing and recycling — that will be required to meet high humanitarian and environmental standards (Greenwire, Jan. 23).
This content should not be accepted as official medical, legal or professional advice.
